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Rebecca Green

Doctor of Philosophy, (Statistics)
Study Completed: 2015
College of Sciences

Citation

Thesis Title
Statistical methods for assembling and incorporating volcanic records in hazard estimation

Read article at Massey Research Online: MRO icon

The statistical modelling of eruption occurrence is a fundamental tool to better understand the physics of eruptive processes and to be able to make reliable forecasts. Ms Green demonstrated, using a high-resolution Holocene volcanic event record from Mt Taranaki (New Zealand), how geochemical data can be used to modulate the estimated probability of future eruptions. In addition to developing an automated statistical procedure to correlate multiple eruption records, Ms Green created a comprehensive suite of software to model spatially distinct, geochemically tagged, volcanic products. Utilizing maps of prehistoric eruption ash blankets, and individual point thickness observations, Ms Green formulated a Bayesian model for ash thickness as a function of the distance and direction of deposit locations.  This provided estimated eruptive volumes for previous Mt Taranaki events, plus wind and site-speci?c e?ects. Her methodology and ?ndings increase the feasibility of forecasting eruptive volumes and the consequent hazard and risk.

Supervisors
Professor Mark Bebbington
Professor Geoff Jones
Professor Shane Cronin

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